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Investment outlook 2021

Tackling the trilemma

A great year for risky assets
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“The road towards a new normal differs among countries. Those countries managing to solve the trilemma first are also likely to be the economic winners of 2021.”

Jeroen Blokland, Head of Multi Asset

It’s all about the vaccine

  • In our base case, a vaccine becomes available in the first half of 2021. However, of equal importance is the vaccine being sufficiently available, widely distributed and broadly accepted. We see some hiccups and setbacks in the process.

  • Our bull case sees multiple effective vaccines arriving earlier. Logistical challenges in vaccine distribution are dealt with effectively, and the economy is freed from the pendulum swing between lockdowns and re-openings. Here we see room for Keynes’ animal spirits.

  • In our bear case, vaccine development experiences setbacks, with a very limited number of vaccines on the market by only the end of 2021. This does anything but improve the trade-off policymakers have to make between public health, the economy, and personal freedom.

The Executive Summary

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Special topics

What 2021 will bring for 5G, the SDGs and Chinese A-shares

Special topics

What 2021 will bring for 5G, the SDGs and Chinese A-shares

Unlocking 5G’s potential
Unlocking 5G’s potential
We believe 2021 will be an inflection point for 5G – and a select group of companies will reap the fruits of this powerful shift.
Yearly outlook
The road ahead for the SDGs
The road ahead for the SDGs
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have been taking sustainable investing to the next level.
Yearly outlook
Filtering out fraud risk in Chinese A-share markets
Filtering out fraud risk in Chinese A-share markets
Chinese equity markets have emerged as one of the big winners following the Covid-19 shock.
Yearly outlook

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