belgiumnl
Look for the underdog

Look for the underdog

21-01-2020 | Quarterly outlook

The year ahead is shaping up as a good one for global equities. And the signals that we were looking for to see outperformance of ex-US equities versus US equities have started to line up.

  • Fabiana Fedeli
    Fabiana
    Fedeli
    Global Head of Fundamental Equities
  • Wim-Hein  Pals
    Wim-Hein
    Pals
    Head of Emerging Markets team
  • Michiel  Plakman
    Michiel
    Plakman
    Portfoliomanager Robeco Global Stars Equities

Speed read

  • Our stance turns positive for both developed and emerging markets
  • We now have more clarity on key developments
  • Time to rerate the underdogs, starting with emerging markets

In our latest Quarterly, our stance on both developed and emerging equity markets was neutral. Investors were playing a pinball game, bouncing off President Trump’s tweets and the occasional news on monetary policy. At that time, we didn’t know whether we were going to have a China-US trade deal anytime soon and earnings momentum across all the major equity markets had meaningfully weakened.

What has changed over the last three months, that tilts the needle toward more bullishness and makes us feel more sanguine about ex-US equities? Well, we have more clarity now. Global macro is proving to be more resilient than we expected, with some signs of bottoming out. More importantly for equity markets, the deterioration in earnings momentum seems to have halted.

Last but not least, the pivotal trade deal between China and the US is moving in the right direction. The two countries have just signed their Phase I agreement. The agreement is far from comprehensive and has kept in place most of the tariffs that were imposed thus far. That said, it offers hope that further escalation in the tariff war is now off the table.

Reflecting all of the above, our portfolio management teams have become more optimistic on their respective equity markets and have upgraded the conclusions of their five-factor frameworks from neutral to positive. This is the time to rerate the underdogs, as long as fundamentals continue to improve, starting with emerging markets.

Volg ons nu ook op Instagram
Volg ons nu ook op Instagram
Volg ons

Download the Fundamental Equities Outlook Q1 2020

Disclaimer

Dit document is niet beschikbaar voor gebruikers uit landen waar het aanbieden van buitenlandse financiële diensten niet is toegestaan, zoals ‘US persons’.

Uw gegevens worden niet aan derden verstrekt. Deze informatie is uitsluitend bedoeld voor professionele beleggers. Alle aanvragen worden gecontroleerd.

Logo

Disclaimer

De informatie op deze website is uitsluitend bedoeld voor professionele partijen. Een professioneel belegger is: een belegger die beroepsmatig over voldoende kennis, deskundigheid en ervaring beschikt om de financiële risico’s van de zelf genomen beleggingsbeslissing(en) adequaat in te schatten.

Bezoekers van deze website dienen zich ervan bewust te zijn dat zij zelf verantwoordelijk zijn voor naleving van alle in hun eigen land geldende wetten en voorschriften.

Door op Akkoord te klikken, bevestigt u dat u een professionele belegger bent. Indien u op Niet akkoord klikt, wordt u doorverwezen naar de omgeving voor particulieren.

Niet akkoord