5-year Expected Returns


Escaping the hall of mirrors

Download full publication

5-year Expected Returns 2022 - 2026: The Roasting Twenties

Read our latest publication

Download now

Best Asset Allocation Paper

Savvy Investor Awards 2019

In our 116-page outlook, we present our forecasts for the 5-year Expected Returns for all major asset classes.

Return on developed market equities


Return on emerging market equities


Return on Euro Government Bonds


Annual returns denominated in euros

The Executive Summary

Download the summary in French

By reacting to market expectations for further easing, monetary policy becomes a distorted image of its former self. Can central banks escape the ‘hall of mirrors’?

Our 5-year Expected Returns includes:

  • The expected returns for all major asset classes for the 2020-2024 period
  • Analysis of market valuations and macro scenarios
  • Four special topics
For the outlook on long-term steady-state returns, read our Long-Term Expected Returns.

A notable shift in this year’s report is our downward revision of expected returns, owing to our view that a recession is inevitable between now and 2024.

Peter van der Welle, Multi-Asset Strategist

Special topics

In this section we address four questions faced by professional investors.

Special topics

In this section we address four questions faced by professional investors.

Giving China its rightful share in your portfolio
Giving China its rightful share in your portfolio
Chinese stocks are a major new investment opportunity, yet they are under-represented in most portfolios, say Laurens Swinkels and Jaap Hoek.
23-10-2019 | Prévisions sur 5 ans

Leave your details and download our Expected Returns 2020-2024

Download our new 5-year outlook

‘Escaping the hall of mirrors’

Find out what our expected returns for all major asset classes are.

This report is not available for users from countries where the offering of foreign financial services is not permitted, such as US Persons.
Your details are not shared with third parties. This information is exclusively intended for professional investors. All requests are checked.


Décharge légale Agree

Les informations présentes sur ce site Web sont destinées exclusivement aux professionnels. Un investisseur professionnel est : un investisseur qui, à titre professionnel, dispose d'assez de connaissances et d'une expertise et d'une expérience suffisantes pour pouvoir évaluer de manière adéquate les risques financiers liés aux décisions d'investissement prises par lui-même.

Les visiteurs de ce site Web doivent être conscients du fait qu’ils sont eux-mêmes tenus de respecter toutes les lois et règlements en vigueur dans leur pays.

En cliquant sur J'accepte, vous confirmez que vous êtes un investisseur professionnel. Si vous cliquez sur Je n'accepte pas, vous êtes orienté vers la partie réservée aux particuliers.

Je n’accepte pas