australiaen
Turbulence ahead

Turbulence ahead

Investment outlook 2019
Download the full publication

The bull market has caused a number of noticeable divergences within asset classes. We highlight some of them in this outlook, as we think they will offer good investment opportunities in 2019.


  • Growthversusvalue stocks

  • Developedversusemerging markets

  • USversusthe rest of the world

In an environment where the economic outlook looks promising, the warning ‘turbulence ahead’ seems out of place. But we see clouds on the horizon, including:

  • Fed rate hiking
  • Trade wars
  • Mounting inflationary risks

We don’t expect them to derail the economy just yet, as growth is still too strong. But we do expect concerns to grow as time progresses.

In this outlook we look at the implications for the major asset classes, as well as the opportunities these ‘clouds’ represent.
Peter van der Welle, strategist

The bright economic picture is expected to be overshadowed by concerns that this long bull market will soon end. Fueling these fears are issues such as rising interest rates, protectionism, Italy and Brexit. Investors would be well-advised to prepare for these concerns becoming reality.

Peter van der Welle, strategist

Special themes

Ten things that might move the markets in 2019

Special themes

Ten things that might move the markets in 2019

Positioning for a shift towards value stocks
Positioning for a shift towards value stocks
We think now is a very good time for investors to introduce value stocks to their portfolios.
20-11-2018 | Insight
Two European headaches: Brexit and Italy
Two European headaches: Brexit and Italy
Drawing a line under both of these situations will help European equities deliver improved relative performance within a global equity portfolio, and banks will play a key role in this.
06-12-2018 | Insight
Leveraging new technologies in finance
Leveraging new technologies in finance
We currently see a number of specific developments that make fintech an interesting investment theme for next year.
27-11-2018 | Insight
Electric vehicles coming of age
Electric vehicles coming of age
In the coming years, the global automotive industry will go through its most radical change as vehicle electrification and changing consumer preferences challenge existing business models.
13-12-2018 | Insight
Blokland’s daily sketch
Blokland’s daily sketch

Some tax payers are more equal than others

21-09-2020
Why the global population is unsustainable… because it is falling
Why the global population is unsustainable… because it is falling
A lower world population is great for sustainability, right?
15-09-2020 | Stunning statistics
Graph of the week
Graph of the week

A year for growth

11-09-2020 | Insight
No bubble for tech, but can their mega-growth last?
No bubble for tech, but can their mega-growth last?
Tech stocks are not in a bubble that was pricked this week, though their staggering growth may not be sustainable, says Robeco investor Michiel Plakman.
10-09-2020 | Insight

Leave your details and download the full 2019 investment outlook

This report is not available to users, such as US persons, from countries in which the offering of foreign financial services is not permitted.

Your details will not be shared with third parties. This information is intended exclusively for professional investors. All requests are checked.

Logo

Disclaimer

BY CLICKING ON “I AGREE”, I DECLARE I AM A WHOLESALE CLIENT AS DEFINED IN THE CORPORATIONS ACT 2001.

What is a Wholesale Client?
A person or entity is a “wholesale client” if they satisfy the requirements of section 761G of the Corporations Act.
This commonly includes a person or entity:

  • who holds an Australian Financial Services License
  • who has or controls at least $10 million (and may include funds held by an associate or under a trust that the person manages)
  • that is a body regulated by APRA other than a trustee of:
    (i) a superannuation fund;
    (ii) an approved deposit fund;
    (iii) a pooled superannuation trust; or
    (iv) a public sector superannuation scheme.
    within the meaning of the Superannuation Industry (Supervision) Act 1993
  • that is a body registered under the Financial Corporations Act 1974.
  • that is a trustee of:
    (i) a superannuation fund; or
    (ii) an approved deposit fund; or
    (iii) a pooled superannuation trust; or
    (iv) a public sector superannuation scheme
    within the meaning of the Superannuation Industry (Supervision) Act 1993 and the fund, trust or scheme has net assets of at least $10 million.
  • that is a listed entity or a related body corporate of a listed entity
  • that is an exempt public authority
  • that is a body corporate, or an unincorporated body, that:
    (i) carries on a business of investment in financial products, interests in land or other investments; and
    (ii) for those purposes, invests funds received (directly or indirectly) following an offer or invitation to the public, within the meaning of section 82 of the Corporations Act 2001, the terms of which provided for the funds subscribed to be invested for those purposes.
  • that is a foreign entity which, if established or incorporated in Australia, would be covered by one of the preceding paragraphs.
I Disagree