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Insights

How climate change impacts different asset classes
How climate change impacts different asset classes
We believe the climate impact on asset returns is not yet priced-in, and that it will become more significant over time.
19-10-2022 | Insight
From carrier pigeons to AI – gaining an edge with alternative data
From carrier pigeons to AI – gaining an edge with alternative data
Investors increasingly prefer alternative data over more traditional sources.
12-10-2022 | Insight
5-year Expected Returns: The Age of Confusion
5-year Expected Returns: The Age of Confusion
Welcome to terra incognita, a new era in which the certainties that a generation of investors have grown so used to have started to crumble before our very eyes.
21-09-2022 | 5-Year outlook
Investing across deflation, inflation and stagflation
Investing across deflation, inflation and stagflation
Real returns on equities and multi-asset portfolios are typically poor when inflation is high, especially in times of stagflation.
29-08-2022 | Insight
Forecasting stock crash risk with machine learning
Forecasting stock crash risk with machine learning
Machine learning techniques can be used to uncover nonlinear relationships between several variables to help forecast stock crash risk.
15-06-2022 | Insight
The role of green bonds in a fixed income portfolio
The role of green bonds in a fixed income portfolio
Demand for green bonds has grown spectacularly, reflecting investors’ ambitious climate policies.
16-05-2022 | Insight
Shrunk betas can fortify Low-risk portfolios
Shrunk betas can fortify Low-risk portfolios
Research shows that beta forecasts are improved by shrinking correlations more than relative volatilities.
17-02-2022 | Research
What's so cryptic about cryptocurrencies?
What's so cryptic about cryptocurrencies?
Bitcoin could qualify as digital gold, and the blockchain technology behind it has enormous potential, say quant researcher Laurens Swinkels and strategist Peter van der Welle.
13-10-2021 | 5-Year outlook
Some factors are now more equal than others
Some factors are now more equal than others
There is no free lunch when it comes to harvesting factor premiums.
06-10-2021 | 5-Year outlook
What valuations and interest rates tell us about equity factors
What valuations and interest rates tell us about equity factors
Single and multi-factor equity portfolios are currently very attractively valued and factor premiums persist across interest rate cycles.
04-10-2021 | Insight
Factoring climate change into Expected Returns forecasts
Factoring climate change into Expected Returns forecasts
The impact of climate change has been factored into the core forecasts in Expected Returns for the first time in the five-year outlook’s 11-year history.
30-09-2021 | 5-Year outlook
5-year Expected Returns: the Roasting Twenties
5-year Expected Returns: the Roasting Twenties
Things are heating up and our tech optimism is intertwined with that sinking feeling that climate catastrophe is closing in.
29-09-2021 | Insight
Fresh capital has not run dry for unsustainable firms
Fresh capital has not run dry for unsustainable firms
Despite rising interest in sustainable investing, unsustainable companies have faced no obstacles in raising funds in public markets.
11-03-2021 | Research
Comparing pension funds’ ESG policies in the Nordics and the Netherlands
Comparing pension funds’ ESG policies in the Nordics and the Netherlands
Northern European pension funds are at the forefront of the global move towards more sustainable investing.
10-12-2020 | Insight
Filtering out fraud risk in Chinese A-share markets
Filtering out fraud risk in Chinese A-share markets
Chinese equity markets have emerged as one of the big winners following the Covid-19 shock.
26-11-2020 | Yearly outlook
Long-term Expected Returns
Long-term Expected Returns
The purpose of this report is to show our long-term return expectations for a wide set of asset classes.
29-09-2020 | 5-Year outlook
Data sets – historical returns of the market portfolio
Data sets – historical returns of the market portfolio
A research-driven approach is at the core of everything we do.
06-01-2020 | Data sets
Giving China its rightful share in your portfolio
Giving China its rightful share in your portfolio
Chinese stocks are a major new investment opportunity, yet they are under-represented in most portfolios, say Laurens Swinkels and Jaap Hoek.
23-10-2019 | 5-Year outlook
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