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‘Commodity prices have rallied on the spending boom in China’“We’ve seen the oil price bounce to around USD 50 a barrel because the imbalance between demand and supply has changed – oil production capacity has been taken out as companies have cut investment spending and oil rigs numbers have been dropping, while there has been a simultaneous increase in demand for refined gasoline.”
‘The places with poor ESG scores tend to perform poorly’“ESG analysis is very important in emerging markets because the places with poor ESG scores tend to perform poorly over the medium to long term,” says Murray-John. “As well as ESG factors we base our fundamental bottom-up country research on two other factors: debt sustainability and the economic cycle. These three factors together are called the ‘three pillars approach’.”
‘We see some signs of decelerating growth in the US’“We see some signs of decelerating growth in the US; which is not surprising given the age of the current expansion, so the dollar is unlikely to continue to perform strongly, particularly if the US is not hiking rates. Many emerging market countries are seeing an improvement in their terms of trade as commodity prices recover, and there has been an associated improvement in current account deficits.”
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