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Expected Returns 2017-2021

It’s always darkest just before dawn

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Special themes

Debt supercycleFacing the debt supercycle

Debt will not come back to haunt markets soon, but there are risks.

Emerging comebackEmerging markets comeback

Are emerging markets the place to be? A cautious stance is warranted.

Climate change, a systemic riskClimate change, a systemic risk

Investors beware, markets could feel its consequences soon.

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Executive Summary: It’s always darkest just before dawn

It’s always darkest just before dawn

Expansion phases do not die of old age and although this one has already outlived the average expansion cycle period, we expect it still has room to continue over the next five years. Central banks will retain their asymmetric reaction function, allowing inflation to run its course for some time, rather than choking growth with a linear tightening cycle, especially in a leveraged world.

‘A seven on a scale from one to ten for the world economy’

Expected Returns 2017-2021

“There’s too much gloom. History has taught us you cannot extrapolate the present doom to the future. Taking that into account, we have to be optimists”.

Lukas Daalder (CIO Investment Solutions) and Léon Cornelissen (Chief economist) discuss the state of the world economy and financial markets.

Steering clear of deflation and stagnation


Expected Returns 2017-2021

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