Overview articles Lukas Daalder
25-10-2016 | Lukas Daalder
The slow, but oh so steady demise of the centre-voter
21-10-2016 | Lukas Daalder
Prediction is not easy. And even the US central bank is making a pig's ear of it too, according to this week's graph(s).
13-10-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder
Markets wake up from summer slumber
10-10-2016 | Monthly outlook | Lukas Daalder
The Bank of Japan’s latest plans to stimulate the economy by controlling bond yields and targeting higher inflation won’t solve the underlying structural problems, warns Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.
26-09-2016 | Outlook | Lukas Daalder
Debt gets a bad rap, creating images of human figures bound in chains… but is it really that bad? It is a lot more complex than that, says asset allocator and debt investor Lukas Daalder in his analysis of the thorny subject for Robeco’s new five-year outlook.
26-09-2016 | Outlook | Lukas Daalder
Every year Robeco takes a fresh look at the outlook for the global economy over the next five years. Our analysis gives a prognosis for the major asset classes and three potential scenarios (baseline, stagnation and high growth).
13-09-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder
Over the past month, Robeco Investment Solutions has made a number of minor changes to its multi-asset portfolio. On balance, we remain underweight equities, as we see numerous risks which have been mostly ignored by stock markets, due to the natural upward drift during low volatility trading periods.
08-09-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder
The old phrase that ‘no news is good news’ has been working its magic in the markets lately – but it may be the calm before the storm, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.
04-08-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder
The Bank of England’s rate cut and new QE stimulus measures is a positive package that will be welcomed by investors, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.
03-08-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder
The ‘volatile season’ is about to begin as investors face what is historically the bumpiest time of the year, with some genuine things to worry about, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.
14-07-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder
Brexit, Brexit, Brexit. Like many, we had hoped that the word would soon fall out of fashion, following a (predictable?) victory by the Bremain camp, but we turned out to be wrong.
11-07-2016 | Outlook | Lukas Daalder
Stock markets are too complacent about the potential consequences of the UK’s historic vote to leave the EU, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.
29-06-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder
The mid-term outlook for investors depends on whether the Brexit either unifies or further breaks up the European Union in a domino effect, says Lukas Daalder.
24-06-2016 | Insight | Kommer van Trigt, Lukas Daalder, Mark Glazener, Sander Bus, Victor Verberk
Markets got the biggest shock from the Brexit vote since the financial crisis of 2008 and now face months of uncertainty, say Robeco’s portfolio managers for the major asset classes.
16-06-2016 | Insight | Kommer van Trigt, Lukas Daalder, Mark Glazener
On June 23, 2016, the British will vote whether or not they want to remain a member of the European Union. In this article, three investors – Lukas Daalder, Mark Glazener and Kommer van Trigt - give their take on the consequences of a potential Brexit for, respectively, the main asset classes, global equities, and global bonds.
06-06-2016 | Outlook | Lukas Daalder
Equity markets are caught in a classic ‘hope versus fear’ cycle as investors face a number of major events, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.
09-05-2016 | Monthly outlook | Lukas Daalder
Who’s to blame for the volatility seen in 2016? The temptation is to look for scapegoats, or blame it on structural problems, but is this correct?
12-04-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder
Whether you think the first quarter of 2016 was a horror story or rather an interesting experience mostly depends on two factors: on timing and on whether you were active in the bond markets.
08-04-2016 | Monthly outlook | Lukas Daalder
Oil is losing its power to shock as its risks have been better discounted into financial markets, while the passing of time will bring the positive impact of lower oil to the fore, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.
09-03-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder
February was a month with two faces. The first part of the month was terrible for risky assets. At a certain moment it felt like we were reliving the financial crisis of 2008.
07-03-2016 | Monthly outlook | Lukas Daalder
Helicopter money is moving onto central banks’ radar as they run out of ammunition to stimulate economies, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.
29-02-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder
What are the odds that the UK will leave Europe on 23 June? And what will the potential impact thereof be? We asked Lukas Daalder, CIO Investment Solutions.
11-02-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder
If you believe in the January effect – the predictive power of the returns of the first month for the rest of the year – it is clear that 2016 is not going to be a very pleasant experience for a substantial part of the financial markets.
08-02-2016 | Monthly outlook | Lukas Daalder
Financial markets are in danger of creating a ‘self-fulfilling outcome’ that will send asset values even lower unless common sense breaks out, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.
21-01-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder
The digital revolution will be a game changer in relationships between macroeconomic factors such as production, consumption, labor and inflation. Lukas Daalder outlines the effects on investors. “The disruptive effect of digitalization promotes the case for active equity investing.”
14-01-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder
We can be relatively short with respect to our look-back assessment of 2015: disappointing.
13-01-2016 | Outlook | Lukas Daalder
The annual predictions season officially kicked off the moment we tore the last page off our 2015 calendar. Anything from simply making future projections based on existing movements and trends to coming up with top-of-your-head ideas for ‘black swans’ – unexpected events that could have a major impact.
11-01-2016 | Monthly outlook | Lukas Daalder
Equities are being rattled by three fears that are leading to an overreaction in markets, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.
05-01-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder
Chinese growth fears and Middle East tensions caused equity markets to open the new year with significant falls – but it is the US that investors should focus on, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.
17-11-2015 | Insight | Lukas Daalder, Léon Cornelissen, Peter van der Welle
The year of increasing volatility: that was the key takeaway in the Outlook 2015 we presented last year. Volatility we forecasted and volatility we got.
12-10-2015 | Insight | Lukas Daalder
Whereas the industrialized world experienced a pretty solid second quarter, there is no denying that underlying momentum deteriorated during the third quarter.
14-09-2015 | Outlook | Lukas Daalder, Léon Cornelissen
Charles Groenhuijsen interviewed Léon Cornelissen and Lukas Daalder on the main themes and issues of Robeco’s ‘Expected Returns 2016-2020’. Both are fairly optimistic about the world economy through to 2020. The re-emergence of inflation and rising rates will eat into sovereign bond returns, so both Cornelissen and Daalder prefer equities. They remain more bullish than bearish as the world continues to recover.
10-09-2015 | Lukas Daalder
If we only had the published macro data of the US and Eurozone to go by, we would probably have concluded that August was a boring month: most economic data published was in line with expectations, showing a path of steady growth.
04-09-2015 | Best read 2015 | Lukas Daalder
Changing technology presents a double-edged sword for the world economy. Disruptive start-ups will probably remain important, particularly if new products are deflationary or challenge established players.
27-08-2015 | Insight | Lukas Daalder
The equity market sell-off has been overdone and it is now time to get back into stocks, says Lukas Daalder, Chief Investment Officer for Robeco Investment Solutions.
11-08-2015 | Insight | Lukas Daalder
Emerging markets are becoming less attractive as falling commodity prices and fears over Chinese growth pose a threat to equity values, says Robeco’s head of asset allocation.
30-06-2015 | Best read 2015 | Lukas Daalder
A market strategist once said that “if you buy commodities, you are betting against the ingenuity of people”. When natural resources become too expensive, human resources step in to find alternatives, says multi-asset investment head Lukas Daalder.
22-12-2014 | Insight | Jaap Hoek, Lukas Daalder, Remmert Koekkoek
How should pension funds deal with the risk of rising interest rates on the capital markets? Is it sensible to hedge interest rates or should we focus more on inflation risks? Three experts highlight the interest rate related issues for pension funds in the light of the new Financial Assessment Framework.
03-10-2014 | Outlook | Lukas Daalder
What's hot and what's not for the next five years? Our portfolio managers, economists and strategists favor equities over bonds, due to the prospect of higher interest rates, but warn that returns are likely to be lower than during the previous 2014-2018 period.
Equities will earn 5.5% annually for investors over the next five years, while returns on German government bonds are forecasted to reach -3%. These are the core predictions of Robeco Investment Solutions’ latest Expected Returns outlook for 2016-2020.
It's been around six years since the last US recession – which is more than just a coincidence. Recessions (the gray areas in the graph below) now occur far less frequently than they did a hundred years ago and, on average, don’t last as long either.