By continuing on this site you have agreed to cookies being placed and accessed by this website. More information and adjusting cookie settings.
Yields on US 10-year Treasuries have risen a full percentage point in less than six months to 2.5%, rounded off. That is ten times as much as yields on German government bonds over the same period. The yield differential between US and German bonds is now greater than it has been since 1989. But even government bonds of debt-laden Italy have lower yields than in the US. And yet even US yields are still much too low.
Economies are doing reasonably fine, not spectacularly well. Although we have no indication that economies are getting worse, the outlook is still a bit gloomy, with risks arising mostly from the political arena.
For our first chart extraordinaire in a series of three, Lukas Daalder, Chief Investment Officer of Robeco Investment Solutions, picked this one from the Economist magazine, entitled ‘No boom without a bust’. This beautifully (and also somewhat terrifyingly) illustrates the enormity of the level of privately held Chinese debt outside the financial sector.
President Trump will have to deal with many well-known acronyms when he takes office, including NAFTA and NATO. But here's a new one that is rather more difficult to pronounce, and which will worry markets rather more: WSDKWTWD.
Download the second edition of Robeco Quarterly, our 40-page magazine for professional investors, focusing on quant investing, sustainability investing and research. Also in this edition: a long-read on liquid alternatives, a summary of Robeco’s 2017 outlook and an interview with Mark Glazener on the risks of aggressive tax policies.
The idea of a global ‘debt supercycle’ is not as scary as it sounds, but three things do threaten stability if borrowing spirals out of control, Robeco’s experts advised asset owners at a recent webinar.
This year we have broken with tradition and compiled our look-ahead as a dynamic infographic. Given the tumultuous changes seen in 2016 we have entitled our outlook 'Time for Plan B'. In our 2017 outlook we focus on more than a dozen issues, including the US economy, Europe's 'problem children' Italy and the UK, China, emerging markets and valuations of stocks worldwide.
Remarkable. That’s the best way to characterize the speed with which the stock markets went from fear to faith in less than 24 hours following the surprise Trump victory. Reflation was all of a sudden the name of the game.
Debt gets a bad rap, creating images of human figures bound in chains… but is it really that bad? It is a lot more complex than that, says asset allocator and debt investor Lukas Daalder in his analysis of the thorny subject for Robeco’s new five-year outlook.
Every year Robeco takes a fresh look at the outlook for the global economy over the next five years. Our analysis gives a prognosis for the major asset classes and three potential scenarios (baseline, stagnation and high growth).
Over the past month, Robeco Investment Solutions has made a number of minor changes to its multi-asset portfolio. On balance, we remain underweight equities, as we see numerous risks which have been mostly ignored by stock markets, due to the natural upward drift during low volatility trading periods.
On June 23, 2016, the British will vote whether or not they want to remain a member of the European Union. In this article, three investors – Lukas Daalder, Mark Glazener and Kommer van Trigt - give their take on the consequences of a potential Brexit for, respectively, the main asset classes, global equities, and global bonds.
Oil is losing its power to shock as its risks have been better discounted into financial markets, while the passing of time will bring the positive impact of lower oil to the fore, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.
If you believe in the January effect – the predictive power of the returns of the first month for the rest of the year – it is clear that 2016 is not going to be a very pleasant experience for a substantial part of the financial markets.
The digital revolution will be a game changer in relationships between macroeconomic factors such as production, consumption, labor and inflation. Lukas Daalder outlines the effects on investors. “The disruptive effect of digitalization promotes the case for active equity investing.”
The annual predictions season officially kicked off the moment we tore the last page off our 2015 calendar. Anything from simply making future projections based on existing movements and trends to coming up with top-of-your-head ideas for ‘black swans’ – unexpected events that could have a major impact.
Charles Groenhuijsen interviewed Léon Cornelissen and Lukas Daalder on the main themes and issues of Robeco’s ‘Expected Returns 2016-2020’. Both are fairly optimistic about the world economy through to 2020. The re-emergence of inflation and rising rates will eat into sovereign bond returns, so both Cornelissen and Daalder prefer equities. They remain more bullish than bearish as the world continues to recover.
If we only had the published macro data of the US and Eurozone to go by, we would probably have concluded that August was a boring month: most economic data published was in line with expectations, showing a path of steady growth.
Changing technology presents a double-edged sword for the world economy. Disruptive start-ups will probably remain important, particularly if new products are deflationary or challenge established players.
A market strategist once said that “if you buy commodities, you are betting against the ingenuity of people”. When natural resources become too expensive, human resources step in to find alternatives, says multi-asset investment head Lukas Daalder.
How should pension funds deal with the risk of rising interest rates on the capital markets? Is it sensible to hedge interest rates or should we focus more on inflation risks? Three experts highlight the interest rate related issues for pension funds in the light of the new Financial Assessment Framework.
What's hot and what's not for the next five years? Our portfolio managers, economists and strategists favor equities over bonds, due to the prospect of higher interest rates, but warn that returns are likely to be lower than during the previous 2014-2018 period.
Equities will earn 5.5% annually for investors over the next five years, while returns on German government bonds are forecasted to reach -3%. These are the core predictions of Robeco Investment Solutions’ latest Expected Returns outlook for 2016-2020.
It's been around six years since the last US recession – which is more than just a coincidence. Recessions (the gray areas in the graph below) now occur far less frequently than they did a hundred years ago and, on average, don’t last as long either.