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Overview articles Lukas Daalder

Best economic links of the web

18-01-2017 | Lukas Daalder

This is what the investors currently see as the biggest tail risks

Graph of the week

13-01-2017 | Lukas Daalder

Yields on US 10-year Treasuries have risen a full percentage point in less than six months to 2.5%, rounded off. That is ten times as much as yields on German government bonds over the same period. The yield differential between US and German bonds is now greater than it has been since 1989. But even government bonds of debt-laden Italy have lower yields than in the US. And yet even US yields are still much too low.

Waiting for Trump makes us neutral on equities for now

12-01-2017 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

Economies are doing reasonably fine, not spectacularly well. Although we have no indication that economies are getting worse, the outlook is still a bit gloomy, with risks arising mostly from the political arena.

Winds of change, as investors face optimistic 2017 but with Trump risks

09-01-2017 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

Investors will see the ‘winds of change’ in 2017 and have reasons for optimism while facing new risks related to Trump, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.

Chart of 2017 #1: No boom without a bust

05-01-2017 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

For our first chart extraordinaire in a series of three, Lukas Daalder, Chief Investment Officer of Robeco Investment Solutions, picked this one from the Economist magazine, entitled ‘No boom without a bust’. This beautifully (and also somewhat terrifyingly) illustrates the enormity of the level of privately held Chinese debt outside the financial sector.

WSDKWTWD – We Simply Don’t Know What Trump Will Do

07-12-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

President Trump will have to deal with many well-known acronyms when he takes office, including NAFTA and NATO. But here's a new one that is rather more difficult to pronounce, and which will worry markets rather more: WSDKWTWD.

Robeco Quarterly December 2016

01-12-2016 | Magazine | David Blitz, PhD, Jan Sytze Mosselaar, Jeroen Blokland, Léon Cornelissen, Lukas Daalder, Peter Ferket, Pim van Vliet, PhD

Download the second edition of Robeco Quarterly, our 40-page magazine for professional investors, focusing on quant investing, sustainability investing and research. Also in this edition: a long-read on liquid alternatives, a summary of Robeco’s 2017 outlook and an interview with Mark Glazener on the risks of aggressive tax policies.

What does the debt supercycle mean for asset owners

29-11-2016 | Insight | Léon Cornelissen, Lukas Daalder

The idea of a global ‘debt supercycle’ is not as scary as it sounds, but three things do threaten stability if borrowing spirals out of control, Robeco’s experts advised asset owners at a recent webinar.

Outlook 2017: Time for Plan B

28-11-2016 | Outlook | Léon Cornelissen, Lukas Daalder, Peter van der Welle

This year we have broken with tradition and compiled our look-ahead as a dynamic infographic. Given the tumultuous changes seen in 2016 we have entitled our outlook 'Time for Plan B'. In our 2017 outlook we focus on more than a dozen issues, including the US economy, Europe's 'problem children' Italy and the UK, China, emerging markets and valuations of stocks worldwide.

Trump is currently good for equities but bad for bonds

17-11-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

Remarkable. That’s the best way to characterize the speed with which the stock markets went from fear to faith in less than 24 hours following the surprise Trump victory. Reflation was all of a sudden the name of the game.

Trump’s rhetoric versus reality will center on three issues

14-11-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

President Donald Trump will face three major issues when he takes office, as pre-election rhetoric turns into harsh economic reality, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.

Volatility sticks to the script in September

13-10-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

Markets wake up from summer slumber

Novel Japanese plans won’t solve underlying problems

10-10-2016 | Monthly outlook | Lukas Daalder

The Bank of Japan’s latest plans to stimulate the economy by controlling bond yields and targeting higher inflation won’t solve the underlying structural problems, warns Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.

The debt supercycle also means growing wealth

26-09-2016 | Outlook | Lukas Daalder

Debt gets a bad rap, creating images of human figures bound in chains… but is it really that bad? It is a lot more complex than that, says asset allocator and debt investor Lukas Daalder in his analysis of the thorny subject for Robeco’s new five-year outlook.

It’s always darkest just before dawn

26-09-2016 | Outlook | Lukas Daalder

Every year Robeco takes a fresh look at the outlook for the global economy over the next five years. Our analysis gives a prognosis for the major asset classes and three potential scenarios (baseline, stagnation and high growth).

Closing our short position in sterling for now

13-09-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

Over the past month, Robeco Investment Solutions has made a number of minor changes to its multi-asset portfolio. On balance, we remain underweight equities, as we see numerous risks which have been mostly ignored by stock markets, due to the natural upward drift during low volatility trading periods.

No news is good news for markets

08-09-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

The old phrase that ‘no news is good news’ has been working its magic in the markets lately – but it may be the calm before the storm, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.

Investors welcome Bank of England stimulus measures

04-08-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

The Bank of England’s rate cut and new QE stimulus measures is a positive package that will be welcomed by investors, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.

The ‘volatile season’ is about to begin

03-08-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

The ‘volatile season’ is about to begin as investors face what is historically the bumpiest time of the year, with some genuine things to worry about, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.

Moving to underweight in European equities post-Brexit

14-07-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

Brexit, Brexit, Brexit. Like many, we had hoped that the word would soon fall out of fashion, following a (predictable?) victory by the Bremain camp, but we turned out to be wrong.

Stock markets are too complacent about Brexit aftermath

11-07-2016 | Outlook | Lukas Daalder

Stock markets are too complacent about the potential consequences of the UK’s historic vote to leave the EU, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.

Mid-term outlook depends on any Brexit domino effect

29-06-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

The mid-term outlook for investors depends on whether the Brexit either unifies or further breaks up the European Union in a domino effect, says Lukas Daalder.

Financial markets get a ‘nasty surprise’ from Brexit vote

24-06-2016 | Insight | Kommer van Trigt, Lukas Daalder, Mark Glazener, Sander Bus, Victor Verberk

Markets got the biggest shock from the Brexit vote since the financial crisis of 2008 and now face months of uncertainty, say Robeco’s portfolio managers for the major asset classes.

Three investors’ perspectives on Brexit

16-06-2016 | Insight | Kommer van Trigt, Lukas Daalder, Mark Glazener

On June 23, 2016, the British will vote whether or not they want to remain a member of the European Union. In this article, three investors – Lukas Daalder, Mark Glazener and Kommer van Trigt - give their take on the consequences of a potential Brexit for, respectively, the main asset classes, global equities, and global bonds.

Stock markets caught between hope and fear

06-06-2016 | Outlook | Lukas Daalder

Equity markets are caught in a classic ‘hope versus fear’ cycle as investors face a number of major events, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.

Who’s to blame for volatility?

09-05-2016 | Monthly outlook | Lukas Daalder

Who’s to blame for the volatility seen in 2016? The temptation is to look for scapegoats, or blame it on structural problems, but is this correct?

Neutral for equities, overweight for high yield bonds

12-04-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

Whether you think the first quarter of 2016 was a horror story or rather an interesting experience mostly depends on two factors: on timing and on whether you were active in the bond markets.

Oil is losing its power to shock

08-04-2016 | Monthly outlook | Lukas Daalder

Oil is losing its power to shock as its risks have been better discounted into financial markets, while the passing of time will bring the positive impact of lower oil to the fore, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.

High yield remains our preferred risky asset

09-03-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

February was a month with two faces. The first part of the month was terrible for risky assets. At a certain moment it felt like we were reliving the financial crisis of 2008.

Helicopter money flies into view

07-03-2016 | Monthly outlook | Lukas Daalder

Helicopter money is moving onto central banks’ radar as they run out of ammunition to stimulate economies, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.

Brexit unlikely, but what if…?

29-02-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

What are the odds that the UK will leave Europe on 23 June? And what will the potential impact thereof be? We asked Lukas Daalder, CIO Investment Solutions.

Reducing our risk profile as markets sink

11-02-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

If you believe in the January effect – the predictive power of the returns of the first month for the rest of the year – it is clear that 2016 is not going to be a very pleasant experience for a substantial part of the financial markets.

Beware the ‘self-fulfilling outcome’ of market sentiment

08-02-2016 | Monthly outlook | Lukas Daalder

Financial markets are in danger of creating a ‘self-fulfilling outcome’ that will send asset values even lower unless common sense breaks out, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.

Check how susceptible your investment portfolio is to disruption

21-01-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

The digital revolution will be a game changer in relationships between macroeconomic factors such as production, consumption, labor and inflation. Lukas Daalder outlines the effects on investors. “The disruptive effect of digitalization promotes the case for active equity investing.”

New year fireworks, but we stick to our risk-on positioning

14-01-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

We can be relatively short with respect to our look-back assessment of 2015: disappointing.

Thirteen things that could move markets in 2016

13-01-2016 | Outlook | Lukas Daalder

The annual predictions season officially kicked off the moment we tore the last page off our 2015 calendar. Anything from simply making future projections based on existing movements and trends to coming up with top-of-your-head ideas for ‘black swans’ – unexpected events that could have a major impact.

The three things spooking markets: rational or not?

11-01-2016 | Monthly outlook | Lukas Daalder

Equities are being rattled by three fears that are leading to an overreaction in markets, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.

Forget China - it’s the US that really moves markets

05-01-2016 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

Chinese growth fears and Middle East tensions caused equity markets to open the new year with significant falls – but it is the US that investors should focus on, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.

The year of diminishing returns

17-11-2015 | Insight | Lukas Daalder, Léon Cornelissen, Peter van der Welle

The year of increasing volatility: that was the key takeaway in the Outlook 2015 we presented last year. Volatility we forecasted and volatility we got.

Market malaise is a good time to add risk

12-10-2015 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

Whereas the industrialized world experienced a pretty solid second quarter, there is no denying that underlying momentum deteriorated during the third quarter.

Still more bullish than bearish

14-09-2015 | Outlook | Lukas Daalder, Léon Cornelissen

Charles Groenhuijsen interviewed Léon Cornelissen and Lukas Daalder on the main themes and issues of Robeco’s ‘Expected Returns 2016-2020’. Both are fairly optimistic about the world economy through to 2020. The re-emergence of inflation and rising rates will eat into sovereign bond returns, so both Cornelissen and Daalder prefer equities. They remain more bullish than bearish as the world continues to recover.

Equities have become interesting again

10-09-2015 | Lukas Daalder

If we only had the published macro data of the US and Eurozone to go by, we would probably have concluded that August was a boring month: most economic data published was in line with expectations, showing a path of steady growth.

The double-edged sword of changing technology

04-09-2015 | Best read 2015 | Lukas Daalder

Changing technology presents a double-edged sword for the world economy. Disruptive start-ups will probably remain important, particularly if new products are deflationary or challenge established players.

Moving back to overweight in equities

27-08-2015 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

The equity market sell-off has been overdone and it is now time to get back into stocks, says Lukas Daalder, Chief Investment Officer for Robeco Investment Solutions.

Emerging markets become less attractive as commodity prices fall

11-08-2015 | Insight | Lukas Daalder

Emerging markets are becoming less attractive as falling commodity prices and fears over Chinese growth pose a threat to equity values, says Robeco’s head of asset allocation.

Alternative investing: Beware the economic ‘super-cycle’ in commodities

30-06-2015 | Best read 2015 | Lukas Daalder

A market strategist once said that “if you buy commodities, you are betting against the ingenuity of people”. When natural resources become too expensive, human resources step in to find alternatives, says multi-asset investment head Lukas Daalder.

Sensible approach to rising interest rates

22-12-2014 | Insight | Jaap Hoek, Lukas Daalder, Remmert Koekkoek

How should pension funds deal with the risk of rising interest rates on the capital markets? Is it sensible to hedge interest rates or should we focus more on inflation risks? Three experts highlight the interest rate related issues for pension funds in the light of the new Financial Assessment Framework.

Equities are the top picks for the next five years

03-10-2014 | Outlook | Lukas Daalder

What's hot and what's not for the next five years? Our portfolio managers, economists and strategists favor equities over bonds, due to the prospect of higher interest rates, but warn that returns are likely to be lower than during the previous 2014-2018 period.

Equities set to lead returns over the next five years

Lukas Daalder

Equities will earn 5.5% annually for investors over the next five years, while returns on German government bonds are forecasted to reach -3%. These are the core predictions of Robeco Investment Solutions’ latest Expected Returns outlook for 2016-2020.

Recessions are rarely more than a non-event for long-term investors

Lukas Daalder

It's been around six years since the last US recession – which is more than just a coincidence. Recessions (the gray areas in the graph below) now occur far less frequently than they did a hundred years ago and, on average, don’t last as long either.

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Lukas Daalder
CIO Investment Solutions